September 4 Market Commentary

Crypto prices saw the risk-off move lower with BTC falling back to its recent range on the Nasdaq sell-off, though sentiment appears to be getting increasingly wary by the day without an obvious catalyst to take prices higher. September will be a busy month with a mood-setting NFP this Friday, an almost guaranteed Fed cut in about 2 weeks. Investors will get a confirmation of the degree of the economic slowdown.

September is widely known as the worst month for US equities, and risk assets followed the script with large sell-offs across the board, beginning with a sharp drop in USDJPY with a supposed Ueda document confirming that the BoJ will continue to raise rates if the economy continued to perform as expected, while China continues to underperform with official manufacturing PMI that missed expectations and dragged overall commodity prices lower.

US PMI rebounded modestly in August but also came below expectations on weakening new orders. Still, the main risk-off event was with Nvidia, which lost about $280 billion in market cap on Tuesday after receiving subpoenas probes from the DOJ on antitrust violations. The Justice Department also sent similar inquiries to other AI tech companies.