CPI data & the bullish signs from institutions on crypto
Macro markets had a quiet week heading into CPI, where we just printed a stronger beat on the core (0.31% MoM vs 0.25% expected) driven by strong shelter inflation and OER. Market reaction was choppy with treasuries continuing its bear-flattening move, while a jump in initial claims (230k –> 258k) was blamed on Hurricane Helene, with Hurricane Milton likely to continue muddling the claims data over the next few weeks.
The higher yield move and SPX at record highs are helping to push USD higher, but it is coming at the expense of crypto, where BTC is back to hovering at around the 60k level again. A rebound in Trump’s election odds has failed to elevate sentiment higher, and the market could be focused on how much of the income release of the FTX creditor claims will be reinvested back into crypto.
Finally, Mt. Gox’s fresh announcement that it has extended its repayment deadline by a year to Oct 2025 might help to alleviate some supply pressures in the short-run, but it appears that BTC will be in a holding pattern here heading into the final weeks of the election.