Category: insight
-
Be Like Mike
After a long and bumpy ride, Microstrategy successfully completed its successful transformation from a dotcom-era software company into a levered Bitcoin treasury company for Main Street, when NASDAQ announced MSTR’s inclusion into the bellwhether tech index as of December 23rd. The decision to include Microstrategy marks a critical institutional acceptance of the controversial Michael Saylor…
-
December Goldilocks
A somewhat lukewarm NFP kept December rate cuts alive, with headlings slightly beating estimates, but last month’s poor figure (12k) saw little upward revisions, pointing to some factual weakness in the job market. However, a slightly high unemployment rate suggests that the labour market is cooling gradually without significant deterioration, offering cover for the Fed…
-
Final Stretch
Last week was Thanksgiving week in the US, with light volumes and markets staying in a holding pattern for the most part. US equities are about to make history once again, with 2024 turning into one of the best performing years in history, with the last 5 out of the past 6 years yielding high…
-
The Fox Guarding the Hen House
With BTC approaching the $100k proverbial wall and every macro observer turning into a MSTR convertible bond expert over the past week, crypto dominated headlines as we captured mainstream’s attention to the largest extent since the FTX implosion. Naturally, as we discussed over the past few weeks, the ‘easy innings’ are now over and things…
-
The Next Inning
US equity markets gave back some of its recent gains (SPX -1.3%, Nasdaq -2.3% on Friday) on the back of extreme long positioning and worries over the continued climb in yield (10y nominals ~4.45%, real yields >2.15%). Furthermore, a late-week appearance by Chairman Powell suggested that the Fed is looking to slow down the pace…
-
80K
That’s a Pretty Impressive Weekly Candle Source: Bloomberg, Messari While President-Elect Trump is still not slated to take office for another 2 months, his impact has been felt far and wide both in geopolitics and capital markets. Crypto made headlines as BTC charged above 80k before some US counties managed to finalize counting their ballots,…
-
Market Q&A
A: It will probably take some time before we have more clarity on the long-term US policy. Despite the overall market rally, VC investments in crypto remain anemic and it would take more official directives to compel the VC money to return. In the meantime, there will be a lot of policy directives competing for…
-
Final Election Preview
After an acrimonious and volatile campaign, the long-awaited election is finally here. Macro assets everywhere are hyper focused (and perhaps overly focused) on the last minute fluctuations in polls, where polymarkets saw a large drop in Trump-odds from 67% down to 55%, moving in line with most other mainstream polls that are calling it a…
-
The Final Stretch
Source: fivethirtyeight Risk markets treaded water the past week as we head into the final stretch of the US election, with both parties bombarding mainstream media with last minute political drives, including an unprecedented 3-hour Trump-Rogan interview with 25M+ views on YouTube alone. Furthermore, perhaps in response to recent US pressures, a late Friday Isareli…
-
October 23 Market Commentary
Thoughts on the price action of BTC & Gold Market expectations of a Trump win have risen in polymarkets, though ‘official’ prediction markets are still calling for a 50-50 race though markets are naturally inclined to hedge against a Trump win, along with a lower probability of a congressional red sweep. I wouldn’t say that…