Category: insight
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Range Break?
Was This It? Has BTC Woken Up from Its Long Slumber? Risk-on sentiment continued in an otherwise muted week, with US equities, treasuries yields, USD FX, gold and BTC prices all grinding to interim or YTD highs. US data was robust with retail sales (+0.6% MoM in real terms, +0.7% MoM in control group) coming…
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Record #45
The SPX Hit its 45thRecord High in 2024… That’s 45 Out of ~198 Trading Days YTD with a New High US markets saw relatively firmer data last week with both CPI and PPI coming in on the stronger side. Markets were initially confused by the data impact, but ultimately decided that the ‘core’ inflation trend…
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October 11 Market Commentary
CPI data & the bullish signs from institutions on crypto Macro markets had a quiet week heading into CPI, where we just printed a stronger beat on the core (0.31% MoM vs 0.25% expected) driven by strong shelter inflation and OER. Market reaction was choppy with treasuries continuing its bear-flattening move, while a jump in…
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Uptober? More Like Jobs-tober.
It seems like everyone is getting a job this month… A significantly stronger than forecast NFP raised significant questions on the Fed’s wisdom to cut 50bp last month, as the US economy added 254k new jobs (vs 150k expected), with the unemployment rate falling back down to 4.05% and average hourly earnings staying robust. NFP…
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Labour Week
A soft US core PCE (and weak European CPIs) ended the risk-friendly week with a treasury bull curve steepening move, and equities (US + China) both hovering at cycle highs. On a 3m/3m basis, core inflation has settled back to around the 2% annualized level across both CPI and PCE, settling back down towards the…
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September 27 Market Commentary – bitcoin ETF flows
26th September’s bitcoin ETF flows It’s all the green light for global risk markets as US equities hit new ATHs for the 3rd time this week, helped by a rapid-fire of furious stimulus to resuscitate the long-struggling Chinese economy. This has led renowned macro observers to turn explicitly bullish on all risk assets in the…
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September 27 Market Commentary – PBoC
PBoC’s ‘Whatever It Takes’ Moment? The recent China stimulus was a long-awaited ‘bazooka’ that the struggling market had long waited for. Against a backdrop of stagnating economic growth and real estate overhang, Chinese policymakers opted for an aggressive move which is specifically targeting stock prices, and trying to reverse years of negative foreign investor sentiment…
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September 24 Market Commentary
Ether ETFs have recorded the worst outflows The current crypto rally remains driven entirely by macro factors and expectations of a Fed ease, rather than idiosyncratic reasons. As such, expressions of beta exposures remain squarely on BTC which has a simple and relatable narrative with the TradFi audience, whereas ETH remains a bit of a…
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50 is the New 25
After being in cruise control for most of the week, Friday saw a sudden repricing of the odds of a 50bp cut in September from ~15% to ~50%, with little news to blame. Economic data was mostly in-line and a non-factor, and the Fed remains in official communication blackout, leaving participants to speculate that it…
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September 12 Market Commentary
Trump-harris debate insights A well-anticipated Presidential debate that appeared to have ended in Kamala’s favor pushed her election betting odds back in the lead. However, markets had little time to digest before a stickier-than-expected CPI, driven by a surge in OER (owner’s equivalent rent), dampened any real chance for a 50bp rate cut next week.…