Category: EN
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Squeeze Up
Risk assets have recovered sharply to levels that are now challenging even the most ardent bears on whether this is still a dead cat bounce or the beginning of a new bull market. While we think labels are often unhelpful and misleading, the pain trade remains for higher prices and that remains the path of…
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Glass Half Full?
The SPX ended last week with its first nine-day winning streak in over 20 years, closing at the highest price since late price and clawing back all of its losses since the ‘Liberation Day’ crash, as the administration dialed back some of the rhetoric on its most hawkish trade policies. US Stocks have Clawed Back…
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He Said, Xi Said…
US continued their tariff brinkmanship with the world, with Trump most recently declaring that ‘over 200’ trade talks were taking place and that he’s spoken on the phone with President Xi most recently. However, that statement was quickly refuted by the Chinese Embassy in Washington, who officially declared that “China and the U.S. are NOT…
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The Times They Are a-Changin’
We are coming up in the first 100 days of Trump’s 2nd presidency, but the geopolitical world already feels unrecognizable versus just a few months ago. It’s no longer a question of whether the US will decouple with the world, but how, and the US’s ‘exhorbitant privilege’ when it comes to the USD reserve status…
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March 28 Market Commentary
Powell’s Speech at the Economic Club of Chicag Powell’s remarks at the Economic Club of Chicago revealed little new information, though he did disappoint doves by stressing their focus on protecting against tariff-driven price hikes from driving a long-term rise in inflation expectations. Powell tried to maintain the Fed’s neutrality irrespective of politics by stating…
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Red Light, Green Light
Is Everyone Having Fun Yet? Credit: X After a wild week of intense geopolitical aggression from the US vs the rest of the world, we ended the week on a strong note as President Trump appears to have made a significant concession with a stated exemption on smartphones, computers, and other electronic devices from reciprocal…
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The Art of the Deal
Are We at the Precipe of a Modern Black Monday? Source: X Did someone say Liberation Day? Or was it Liquidation Day? Macro assets crashed across the board with the Nasdaq retracing nearly 25% peak to trough, and markets showing ominous signs of a modern ‘Black Monday’ with US equities trading down -4% this morning,…
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Quarter-End
Risk assets endured a terrible end to a rough week with US equities trading down -2 to -3% on terrible breadth, CDS spreads hitting recent wides (+20bp on high yield), crypto prices breaking back to YTD lows (BTC <$82k), treasuries bull steepened, and spot gold hitting record highs as the primary risk-off hedge. Tech stocks…
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March 28 Market Commentary
Options Market Turns Cautious: Traders Eye April 2 Announcement Risk markets sold off across the board with Trump’s “liberation day” of reciprocal tariff announcements at just around the corner. Activity was anywhere from 20 to 40% below recent averages given the ‘wait and see’ nature of tariffs, with sell offs seen across US equities, Asian…
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March 25 Market Commentary
Limited Market Rebound; Focus Turns to April 2 “Liberation Day” Tariff Announcement The pattern being noted is similar to what one can observe in equities, where bounces off extreme oversold positions have been tepid and shallow as the overall technical picture has turned negative. Concerns about the US economic slowdown remain, while a rapid unwinding…