Source: Time, X
The highly anticipated return of Trump 2.0 did not disappoint, as the President-elect highlighted a ‘very good’ call with China’s President Xi, a ‘revival’ of TikTok within hours after it’s ban, and an incredulous launch of an ‘official’ $TRUMP token on Solana as a possible preview of the ‘investment’ climate over the next 4 years to come.
It’s Been an Exceptionally Busy and Volatile Few Days for the Incoming President…
Source: CNN, Reuters, Forbes
Even by wild crypto standards, the astronomical rise of the $TRUMP memecoin was nothing the community has ever seen, and we think sets a dangerous (and unhealthy) precedent for the entire sector just as we have started to gain some institutional legitimacy with mainstream. A quick summary of the improbable $TRUMP launch that’s dominated the global mindshare over the past 72 hours:
- $TRUMP was launched without warning and in the middle of Friday evening when most were not paying attention.
- Token was launched on Solana to maximize its memecoin impact, making its intentions very clear.
- Twitter users report that the $TRUMP website and related addresses were supposedly set up many weeks in advance, suggesting that this was an intentional and well planned operation.
- Token marketcap spiked to ~$14 BILLION and (FDV spiked to ~$70 BILLION) within hours of mint, making it one of the largest tokens in existence out of thin air and breaking literally all capital markets records.
- DEX dominated the action as Solana’s largest DEX captured ~$25M in fees in a single day, while Moonshot became one of the most downloaded iOS apps in the US and brought in nearly $500M in volume with 200k of new users on-ramped.
- In a break from convention, large US-based exchanges (Kraken, Coinbase) were amongst the first to list the $TRUMP coin, beating out many of its international peers as US crypto influence continues to grow this cycle.
- Rumors swirl over whether the $TRUMP team has been dumping tokens into the rise according to various on-chain analyses
- With Ethereum FUD at all-time-highs (single largest underperformer), Trump’s ‘World Liberty Financial Team’ made headlines by acquiring ~15M ETH over the weekend, raising further unanswered questions on the insiders’ motives with the recent moves.
From Zero to… $70 Billion in FDV Over 2 Days
Source: Coingecko
$TRUMP Memecoin-Mania Led a Huge Jump in Fees for Solana DEXs
Source: Wu Blockchain, Moonshot
Moonshot App was One of the Most Downloaded iOS Apps in the US This Weekend, and Breaking Crypto On-Ramp Records
Source: Apple
US CEX Rushed to List $TRUMP Tokens Ahead of Their International Peers
Source: X, Kraken
While Rumors Swirl Over Whether the Trump Team has Been Selling Tokens into the Pump or Not
Source: X
Meanwhile, Another Trump Backed Project was Rumored to be Larger Buyers of ETH in the Middle of the Ethereum FUD…
Source: Crypto Times, TradingView
Just as the market was ‘settling’ into the Monday US open and looking forward to the President’s 1st day of executive orders, his team drops another completely unexpected bombshell as $MELANIA was launched in a haphazard manner, causing $TRUMP to dump by 40% in a straight line and dragging the rest of the ecosystem down with it. The obvious question begs, should we be expecting a $BARRON coin at some point?
The Haphazard Launch of $MELANIA Caused $TRUMP to Crash by ~40% (Wife Wins Again!)
Source: X
With both TradFi and crypto market observers struggling to cope with the ‘wisdom’ of an incoming President raising a memecoin days before his inauguration, any lingering rational thoughts were shattered upon the $MELANIA launch, causing a large number of outspoken activists to cry foul over the latest developments. Legality issues aside, there are reasonable doubts that these opportunistic behaviours have seriously jeopardized the hard-earned legitimacy that we have gained over the past 18 months. Not to mention, memecoins are a zero-sum game (impermanent wealth effect) and the $TRUMP/$MELANIA rise has sucked out a significant amount of liquidity from the system with significant capital-at-risk for the late joiners.
We share similar concerns and hope that these meme-driven developments can take a backseat so we can re-focus on some of the institutional developments that the industry has been iterating on.
The ‘Crypto Presidency’ is Off to a Volatile Start…
Source: X
Back on more boring, ‘normie’ markets, Trump 2.0 will also begin as his Presidency will begin with exceptional strength in the US economy (Atlanta GDP Q4 Tracker ~3%), and US equities hovering close to all time highs. Given the flip-flop on tariffs, expect a lot more volatile but direct policies on tariffs, immigration, fiscal spending, and even personnel changes, as Vivek Ramaswamy is rumored to be leaving D.O.G.E already to prepare for an Ohio governor run.
Looks Like Musk will be Back to Running His One-Man Show at D.O.G.E.
Source: Telegraph
Wall Street expects 50-100 executive orders to be signed on Trump’s inauguration day, with yet-unknown impact on US markets depending on the details of the signed orders. Markets have been doing very well since September with assets rallying across the board, and stocks also performing well on Friday thanks to the friendly CPI release and the rally in BTC.
It’s Going to be a Busy Monday for the Incoming Administration
Source: CNN
Macro Assets have Screamed Across the Board Since September
Source: Citi
Equities Performed Well on Friday on Friendly CPI and Rally in BTC
Source: Bloomberg
Despite a reprieve on Friday, bonds might have a tougher time in the near future as the Fed is still dealing with easy financial conditions, a strong underlying economy, and a nagging inflation problem. Fed newcomer Beth Hammack (my 1st Wall Street boss from way back!), expressed her concerns for sticky inflation in a recent WSJ interview, coinciding with the recent strength across payrolls, housing starts, and industrial production data.
The week promises to be a wild one ahead. Good luck with trading and stay safe everyone!
Will Inflation Rear Its Ugly Head in 2025? We Certainly Feel It’s Going to be a Choppy Year Up Ahead…
Source: WSJ, Bloomberg